AI Syndicate
Monte Carlo Simulator — Live Dashboard
Tweak the dials to watch the wealth transition matrix, concentration, and inequality update in real time.
Simulation Controls
Shape the syndicate dynamics
More companies = smoother deciles, but heavier compute.
Year 1 occurs after the first growth step.
Higher runs = tighter convergence; set to 1 for a single run view.
Center of growth distribution
Std dev of normal growth
Share with >40% growth
Min growth (can be negative)
Mean for high-growth band
Probability of surviving each funding round
Chance to become zombie (stalled growth) each round
Years between funding rounds (e.g., 2.5)
Selects a portfolio at entry year and holds to end.
Top % to select from (e.g., 0.25 = top 25%)
Selection bias strength (0 = random)
Equity % sold at seed round
Equity % per later round
Option pool increase per round
Founder ownership at start
Max exit valuation multiple vs entry
Top 10% share
Mean across runs, as share of total wealth.
Gini
Mean inequality of final-year distribution.
Death rate
Mean share of companies that died.
Zombie rate
Mean share of stalled (zombie) companies.
VC TVPI (mean)
Mean total value / paid-in across runs.
VC TVPI (p50)
Median TVPI across runs.
VC TVPI (p75)
75th percentile TVPI across runs.
VC IRR (est)
Estimated IRR % based on holding period.
Founder % at exit
Mean founder ownership after dilution.
Employee % at exit
Mean employee/option pool ownership.
VC 10× hit rate
Share of portfolios with ≥10× winners.
VC 20× hit rate
Share of portfolios with ≥20× winners.
Transition probabilities
Top 10% share across runs
Gini across runs
Final distribution (one run)
VC portfolio TVPI across runs
VC per-company multiples
Company states by year
Ownership breakdown (mean at exit)
Methodology snapshot
Growth model: Each year, companies draw growth from a mixture distribution. Most (~88%) draw from Normal(mean, spread), clamped to a negative floor. A high-growth band (~12%) draws from Normal(high-growth mean, spread/2). This reflects realistic variance with occasional breakout companies.
Survival & zombies: At each funding round (every ~2.5 years), companies face survival probability (~50%). Survivors also face zombie probability (~15%) which halts future growth. This models the ~50% per-round attrition observed in Carta data, plus stalled companies that don't die but stop growing.
Dilution: Each funding round dilutes ownership. Seed rounds sell ~20% equity, later rounds ~27%, plus option pool expansion (~1.5% per round). Founder ownership typically falls from 100% to ~20-25% by Series B/C.
VC selection: VCs select from the top 20-30% of companies (by decile) with mild signal strength, reflecting realistic selection bias that's softer than pure top-decile picking. Exit multiples are capped at ~2.5× to match observed fund returns (median TVPI ~1.7×, p75 ~2.5×).